Abstract

The agricultural policy of Kim Jong-un's regime inherits the economic reform policy of the Kim Jong-Il period, which expands the autonomy of production and allows the market to dispose of products. The formation of markets represents an important factor in the business environment, as it indicates the establishment of fundamental conditions for management. However, major crops are still mainly managed by the state, and the government implements agricultural policies, such as emphasizing "Juche Farming." This study analyzed the impact of transition economic policies during the Kim Jong-un period on agricultural production using variability. Production variabilities increased for minor grain crops compared to previous years, but those of major grain (rice and maize) and horticultural crops did not change significantly. Even the production quantity of horticultural crops decreased, which is different from previous predicts that the expansion of the North Korean market would increase the consumption power of North Koreans and promote horticultural crop production. This study underscores the imperative for North Korea to develop policies aimed at stabilizing crop yields in the face of production variability. It proposes the establishment of an agricultural early warning system as a feasible solution to enhance agricultural infrastructure and promote inter-Korean cooperation.