This study intends to the estimate the determinants and state dependence of long-term care services in Korea. For this purpose, we analyzed the transition patterns among three states of long-term care service utilization over time by using the Korea Welfare Panel Study data with the random effect multinomial logit model. It is found that the result showed a strong state dependence in long-term care service utilization. Especially, long-term care insurance for the elderly showed a strong state dependence among others. Among the individual demographic characteristics, the higher the age, the higher the probability of using long-term care insurance for the elderly, while the lower the probability when married. The characteristics of the residential region showed that the residents of the urban-rural integrated region had a significantly higher probability of using long-term care insurance than the reference region. The results of this study suggest that the long-term care service users have a strong state dependence, which means that it is important to take into account the increase in the utilization period of existing users in future demand forecasting.
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