Abstract

In this study, the Delphi method and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) were used to evaluate tunnel collapse risk from a comprehensive and multifaceted perspective. Influence factors were established through literature reviews, previous studies, and brainstorming sessions with expert groups, resulting in the construction of five mainclassification systems. A panel of 21 experts was formed, and three rounds of Delphi surveys were conducted to prevent errors and biases in the expert judgment process,thereby enhancing reliability. Ultimately, 14 influence factors were identified through CVR (content validity ratio) and COV (coefficient of variation) analyses of the experts’responses. Subsequently, the AHP method was applied to assess the relative importance of each influence factor and calculate the final composite weights. The timing ofsupport and reinforcement had the highest priority, followed by groundwater inflow, joint conditions, support pattern levels, and auxiliary methods. These findings helpidentify the key factors affecting tunnel collapse risk and provide a foundation for developing strategies to improve tunnel safety.