Abstract

As the utilization of underground space increases, preventing collapse accidents during tunnel construction has become a significant challenge. This study aims to quantitatively assess the risk of tunnel collapse during construction by analyzing various influencing factors and proposing a tunnel collapse risk index based on these factors. For the 14 major influencing factors affecting tunnel collapse, weights were calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Data from 27 collapse cases were collected, and Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate the grade scores for each influencing factor. These scores were then synthesized to derive the tunnel collapse risk index. The average value of the tunnel collapse risk index was analyzed to be 49.359 points. Future comparisons with section-by-section evaluation results of tunnel collapse risk will allow for the assessment of whether a specific section has a lower or higher collapse risk. This study provides a systematic method for quantitatively evaluating the key factors of tunnel collapse risk, thereby contributing to the prevention of collapse accidents during tunnel construction and the establish- ment of appropriate countermeasures. Future research is expected to enhance the relia- bility of the tunnel collapse risk index by incorporating more field data and improving the accuracy of tunnel collapse risk assessment based on this index.