Abstract

This study develops an efficient prediction model of drinking & it's problems based on Cooper et al.'s drinking motivation theory. For this, depending on previous study(Kim et al., 2001), nine determinants have been derived to represent four independent latent variables such as behavioral undercontrol (extraversion, novelty seeking), negative affectivity (anxiety, hostility), social pressure(family & peer group), drinking motivation(enhancement, coping, social motive). In doing so, authors have compared five hypothesis models through a ‘moderate regression analysis’ and ‘covariance structure analysis’ and then found the most efficient prediction model. Finally authors have tested the validation of the proposed model based on the multi group analysis. As a result, the proposed prediction model shows that behavioral undercontrol and negative affectivity factors are directly linked to social pressure and drinking motivation. Further a drinking motivation factor is a proximal determinant of drinking indulgence and drinking related problems such as vocational, behavioral and familial problems, which is triggered by behavioral undercontrol, negative affectivity and social pressure. Also the results show that the proposed prediction model can be applicable to many other groups such as male, female, university students, adults and drinking drivers. This study concludes that there are stronger causal relationship between predetermined factors and drinking problems at least in the nonclinical sets. Longitudinal studies are needed for the future to examine the predictive value of the proposed model over time.