- KOREAN
- P-ISSN2287-8327
- E-ISSN2288-1220
- SCOPUS, KCI
ISSN : 2287-8327
Potential impact of climate change on the species richness of subalpine plant species in the mountain national parks of South Korea
Abstract
Background: Subalpine ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. In South Korea, the prediction of the species richness of subalpine plant species under future climate change is not well studied. Thus, this study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change on species richness of subalpine plant species (14 species) in the 17 mountain national parks (MNPs) of South Korea under climate change scenarios’ representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Migclim for the years 2050 and 2070. Results: Altogether, 723 species occurrence points of 14 species and six selected variables were used in modeling. The models developed for all species showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.89 and TSS > 0.70). The results predicted a significant loss of species richness in all MNPs. Under RCP 4.5, the range of reduction was predicted to be 15.38–94.02% by 2050 and 21.42–96.64% by 2070. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, it will decline 15.38–97.9% by 2050 and 23.07–100% by 2070. The reduction was relatively high in the MNPs located in the central regions (Songnisan and Gyeryongsan), eastern region (Juwangsan), and southern regions (Mudeungsan, Wolchulsan, Hallasan, and Jirisan) compared to the northern and northeastern regions (Odaesan, Seoraksan, Chiaksan, and Taebaeksan). Conclusions: This result indicates that the MNPs at low altitudes and latitudes have a large effect on the climate change in subalpine plant species. This study suggested that subalpine species are highly threatened due to climate change and that immediate actions are required to conserve subalpine species and to minimize the effect of climate change.
- keywords
- Climate change, Mountain national park, Species distribution model, Species richness, Subalpine species
Reference
Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R. Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS): assessing the accuracy of distribution models. J Appl Ecol. 2006;43:1223–32.
Boden S, Pyttel P, Eastaugh C. Impacts of climate change on the establishment, distribution, growth and mortality of Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.). iForest - biogeosciences and Forestry. 2010;3:82–5.
Buytaert W, Cuesta-Camacho F, Tobón C. Potential impacts of climate change on the environmental services of humid tropical alpine regions. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2011;20:19–33.
Crossman ND, Bryan BA, Summers DM. Identifying priority areas for reducing species vulnerability to climate change: priorities for reducing species vulnerability to climate change. Divers Distrib. 2012;18:60–72.
Díaz S, Demissew S, Carabias J, et al. The IPBES conceptual frameworkconnecting nature and people. Curr Opin Environ Sustain. 2015;14:1–16.
Dumais D, Prévost M. Management for red spruce conservation in Québec: the importance of some physiological and ecological characteristics – a review. For Chron. 2007;83:378–91.
Dutta PK, Das AK, Sundriyal RC. Alpine timberline research gap in Himalaya: a literature review. Indian Forester. 2014;140:419–27.
Engler R. Migclim user guide (for R). Migclim R user guide. Version 1.1.0; 2012. p. 31.
Engler R, Guisan A. MigClim: predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate. Divers Distrib. 2009;15:590–601.
Engler R, Hordijk W, Guisan A. The MIGCLIM R package - seamless integration of dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models. Ecography. 2012;35:872–8.
Golicher DJ, Cayuela L, Newton AC. Effects of climate change on the potential species richness of Mesoamerican forests: effects of climate change on potential species richness. Biotropica. 2012;44:284–93.
Guillera-Arroita G, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Elith J, et al. Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications: matching distribution models to applications. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2015;24:276–92.
Hartley S, Harris R, Lester PJ. Quantifying uncertainty in the potential distribution of an invasive species: climate and the Argentine ant. Ecol Lett. 2006;9:1068–79.
Heide OM. High autumn temperature delays spring bud burst in boreal trees, counterbalancing the effect of climatic warming. Tree Physiol. 2003;23:931–6.
Higgins SI, Cark JS, Nathan R, et al. Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment. J Ecol. 2003;91:341–7.
IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Summary for policymakers). In:Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, et al., editors. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge and New York: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 2013.
Kong WS. The alpine and subalpine geoecology of Korean Peninsula. Korean J Ecol. 1998;21:383–7.
Kong WS. Biogeography of Korean plants. Seoul: Geobook; 2007. p. 355.
Kong WS, Kim G, Lee SG, et al. Vegetation and landscape characteristics at the peaks of Mts. Seorak, Jiri and Halla. 2017;8:401–14 [Korean, abstract in English].
Kong WS, Kim K, Lee S, et al. Distribution of high mountain plants and species vulnerability against climate change. J Environ Impact Assess. 2014;23:119–36.
Koo KA, Kong WS, Nibbelink NP, et al. Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants in the Korean Peninsula. PLoS One. 2015;10:e0134043.
Koo KA, Kong WS, Park SU, et al. Sensitivity of Korean fir (Abies koreana Wils.), a threatened climate relict species, to increasing temperature at an island subalpine area. Ecol Model. 2017;353:5–16.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula I. Pocheon: South coast province. Korea National Arboretum; 2004.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula II. Pocheon: South province (Jeollado & Jirisan). Korea National Arboretum; 2005.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula III. Pocheon: Central & South province (Chungcheong-do). Korea National Arboretum; 2006.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula IV. Pocheon: Central & south province (Gyeongsangbuk-do). Korea National Arboretum; 2007.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula V. Pocheon: Central province (Geonggi-do). Korea National Arboretum; 2008.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula VI. Pocheon: Central province (Gangwon-do). Korea National Arboretum; 2009a.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula VII. Pocheon: South province (Gyeongsangnam-do) and Ulleungdo province. Korea National Arboretum; 2009b.
Korea National Arboretum. Distribution maps of vascular plants of Korean Peninsula IX. Pocheon: West & South coast province. Korea National Arboretum; 2011.
Korea National Park Service (2018). Korea National Park Service 22, Hyeoksin-ro, Wonju-si, Gangwon-do, Korea. http://knps.or.kr. Accessed 05 Oct 2018.
Lee SG. Effects of temperature increases on the distribution of plants and vulnerability analysis. Kyunghee University, South Korea: MS Thesis; 2011. p. 284.
Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R. AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2008;17:145–51.
Miller K, Hyun K (2009). Ecological corridors: legal framework for the Baekdu Daegan Mountain System (South Korea). South Korea 13.
Ministry of Environment (2018). Ministry of Environment, Republic of Koreaclimate change outlook. http://eng.me.go.kr/eng/web/index.do?menuId=220. Accessed 23 Sep 2018.
Myking T, Heide OM. Dormancy release and chilling requirement of buds of latitudinal ecotypes of Betula pendula and B. pubescens. Tree Physiol. 1995;15:697–704.
National Institute for Environmental Research. The second and third national ecosystem survey: 1997–2012. Incheon: National Institute of Environmental Research; 2013.
Noh I, Chung JM, Cho MG, et al. The flora of subalpine vascular plants in Seseok area of Jirisan National Park, vol. 8; 2017. p. 201–11.
Park J, Shin H, Jung H, et al (2015). A study on adaptation of subalpine ecosystem to climate submitted to change. A reported submitted to National Institute of Ecology, Korea. [Korean, abstract in English].
Park SU, Koo KA, Hong S. Climate-related range shifts of Ardisia japonica in the Korean Peninsula: a role of dispersal capacity. J Ecol and Environ. 2017;41:38.
Park SU, Koo KA, Kong WS. Potential impact of climate change on distribution of warm temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees in the Korean Peninsula. J Korean Geographical Soc. 2016a;51:201–17 [Korean, abstract in English].
Park SU, Koo KA, Seo C, et al. Potential impact of climate change on distribution of Hedera rhombea in the Korean Peninsula. J Climate Change Res. 2016b;7:325–34 [Korean, abstract in English].
Pearsons RG. Species distribution modeling for conservation educators and practitioners. Lessons in Conservation. 2010;3:54–8.
Portnoy S, Willson MF. Seed dispersal curves: behavior of the tail of the distribution. Evol Ecol. 1993;7:25–44.
Pramanik M, Paudel U, Mondal B, et al. Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica in the Western Ghats, India. Climate Risk Manag. 2018;19:94–105.
Rixen C, Dawes MA, Wipf S, Hagedorn F. Evidence of enhanced freezing damage in treeline plants during six years of CO2 enrichment and soil warming. Oikos. 2012;121:1532–43.
Robert JH, Steven P, John L et al (2017). Package‘dismo’. https://cran.r project.org/web/packages/dismo. Accessed 23 Sep 2018.
Sevanto S, Suni T, Pumpanen J, et al. Winter time photosynthesis and water uptake in a boreal forest. Tree Physiol. 2006;26:749–57.
Shin MS, Changwan S, Park SU, et al. Prediction of potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) considering dispersal ability under climate change. J Environ Impact Assess. 2018;27:291–306[Korean, abstract in English].
Swets J. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science. 1988;240:1285–93.
Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araujo MB. Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2005;14:347–57.
Vellend M, Myers JA, Gardescu S, et al. Dispersal of trillium seeds by deer:implications for long distance migration of forest herbs. Ecology. 2003;84:1067–72.
- Downloaded
- Viewed
- 0KCI Citations
- 0WOS Citations