Abstract

Background: The purpose of this study, mosquito forecast system implemented by Seoul Metropolitan city, was to obtain the mosquito prediction formula by using the mosquito population data and the environmental data of the past. Results: For this study, the mosquito population data from April 1, 2015, to October 31, 2017, were collected. The mosquito population data were collected from the 50 smart mosquito traps (DMSs), two of which were installed in each district (Korean, gu) in Seoul Metropolitan city since 2015. Environmental factors were collected from the Automatic Weather System (AWS) by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The data of the nearest AWS devices from each DMS were used for the prediction formula analysis. We found out that the environmental factors affecting the mosquito population in Seoul Metropolitan city were the mean temperature and rainfall. We predicted the following equations by the generalized linear model analysis: ln(Mosquito population) = 2.519 + 0.08 × mean temperature + 0.001 × rainfall. Conclusions: We expect that the mosquito forecast system would be used for predicting the mosquito population and to prevent the spread of disease through mosquitoes.