Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the difference in survival rates of those subject to electronic supervision of sex crimes based on the tracking of the period of recidivism and whether they were recidivism, and wanted to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. The criteria for recidivism were defined as cases where a conviction was confirmed due to a criminal case that occurred during the execution of electronic monitoring, and the date of recidivism was the date of occurrence of a case that was confirmed guilty. A total of 122 re-offenders were used in the analysis, and all of them were charged with electronic supervision for committing sex crimes. Studies have confirmed that the subjects commit the most recidivism within three years. In addition, in this study, the difference in survival rate between groups was analyzed after classifying mixed and sex recidivism cases. The number of members was 88 for the mixed recidivism group and 34 for the sex recidivism group. The analysis confirmed that both groups had the most recidivism within three years. There was a slight difference between the survival rate of the mixed recidivism group and the survival rate of the sex recidivism group. So the Log Rank Test and the Generalized Wilcoxon Test were conducted, but no statistically significant differences were identified(Wilcoxon statistic = 2.326, df = 1, p = .13, Log Rank = 1.345, df = 1, p = .25). Next, a Cox Regression analysis was performed to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. As a result, the number of criminal records(sex offense, violent crime) have been confirmed to be a good predictor of recidivism(=27.33, =1, < .001). As a result, the recidivism rate is gradually decreasing due to the implementation of the electronic monitoring. However, the duration of recidivism required by sex offenders in high-risk groups was found to be rather short. Currently, security measures against felons are being strengthened, so it is necessary to select high-risk groups. Therefore, based on the related studies, the characteristics of high-risk groups and the results of recidivism studies will be used as a basis for disposal within the criminal justice system, which will play a major role in granting objectivity.