바로가기메뉴

본문 바로가기 주메뉴 바로가기

logo

  • KOREAN
  • P-ISSN2287-8327
  • E-ISSN2288-1220
  • SCOPUS, KCI

Global warming and biodiversity model projections

Journal of Ecology and Environment / Journal of Ecology and Environment, (P)2287-8327; (E)2288-1220
2012, v.35 no.3, pp.157-166



Abstract

Many models intending to explain the latitudinal gradient of increasing species diversity from the poles to the equator are presented, which are a formalisation of the species-energy hypothesis. The model predictions are consistent with patterns of increasing species number with increasing mean air or water temperatures for plants and animals. An increase in species richness is also correlated with net primary production or the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. This implies that increased availability of resources favours increased diversity capacity. The explanatory variables included in the biodiversity prediction models represent measures of water, energy, water-energy, habitat, history/evolution and biological responses. Water variables tend to be the best predictors when the geographic scope of the data is restricted to tropical and subtropical areas, whereas water-energy variables dominate when colder areas are included. In major models,about 20-35% of species in the various global regions (European, Africa, etc.) will disappear from each grid cell by 2050 and >50% could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. This study provides good explanations for predictive models and future changes in biodiversity depending on various scenarios.

keywords
biodiversity, energy, global warming, model predictions, water, water-energy

Reference

1.

Alcamo J. 1994. Image 2.0: Integrated Modelling of Global Climate Change. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

2.

Allen AP, Brown JH, Gillooly JF. 2002. Global biodiversity, biochemical kinetics, and the energetic-equivalence rule. Science 297: 1545-1548.

3.

Allen AP, Gillooly JF. 2007. The mechanistic basis of the metabolic theory of ecology. Oikos 116: 1073-1077

4.

Alward RD, Detling JK, Milchunas DG. 1999. Grassland vegetation changes and nocturnal global warming. Science 283: 229-231

5.

Arita HT. 2005. Range size in mid-domain models of species diversity. J Theor Biol 232: 119-126.

6.

Bakkenes M, Alkemade JRM, Ihle F, Leemans R. Latour JB. 2002. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Glob Chang Biol 8: 390-407.

7.

Bakkenes M, Eickhout B. Alkemade R. 2006. Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plant species in Europe. Glob Environ Chang 16: 19-28.

8.

Barnard P, Thuiller W. 2008. Introduction. global change and biodiversity: future challenges. Biol Lett 4: 553-555.

9.

Barthlott W, Hostert A, Kier G, Küper W, Kreft H, Mutke J, Rafiqpoor MD, Sommer JH. 2007. Geographic patterns of vascular plant diversity at continental to global scales. Erdkunde 61: 305-315.

10.

Boer GJ, McFarlane NA, Lazare M. 1992. Greenhouse gasinduced climate change simulated with the CCC second-generation general circulation model. J Climate 5: 1045-1077.

11.

Botkin DB, Saxe H, Araújo MB, Betts R, Bradshaw RHW, Cedhagen T, Chesson P, Dawson TP, Etterson JR, Faith DP, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hansen AS, Hilbert DW, Loehle C, Margules C, New M, Sobel MJ, Stockwell DRB. 2007. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. BioScience 57: 227-236.

12.

Brown JH, Gillooly JF, Allen AP, Savage VM, West GB. 2004. Toward a metabolic theory of ecology. Ecology 85: 1771-1789.

13.

Campbell AK. 2003. Save those molecules: molecular biodiversity and life. J Appl Ecol 40: 193-203.

14.

Chapin FS III, Zavaleta ES, Eviner VT, Naylor RL, Vitousek PM, Reynolds HL, Hooper DU, Lavorel S, Sala OE, Hobbie SE, Mack MC, Diaz S. 2000. Consequences of changing biodiversity. Nature 405: 234-242.

15.

Colwell RK, Hurtt GC. 1994. Nonbiological gradients in species richness and a spurious Rapoport effect. Am Nat 144: 570-595.

16.

Colwell RK, Lees DC. 2000. The mid-domain effect: geometric constraints on the geography of species richness. Trends Ecol Evol 15: 70-76.

17.

Connell JH. 1978. Diversity in tropical rain forests and coral reefs. Science 199: 1302-1310.

18.

Currie DJ. 1991. Energy and large-scale patterns of animaland plant-species richness. Am Nat 137: 27-49.

19.

Currie DJ. 2001. Projected effects of climate change on patterns of vertebrate and tree species richness in the conterminous United States. Ecosystems 4: 216-225.

20.

Currie DJ, Mittelbach GG, Cornell HV, Field R, Guegan JF, Hawkins BA, Kaufman DM, Kerr JT, Oberdorff T, O’Brien E, Turner JRG. 2004. Predictions and tests of climatebased hypotheses of broad-scale variation in taxonomic richness. Ecol Lett 7: 1121-1134.

21.

De Boeck HJ, Lemmens CMHM, Gielen B, Bossuyt H, Malchair S, Carnol M, Merckx R, Ceulemans R, Nijs I. 2007. Combined effects of climate warming and plant diversity loss on above- and below-ground grassland productivity. Environ Exp Bot 60: 95-104.

22.

Dirnböck T, Dullinger S, Grabherr G. 2003. A regional impact assessment of climate and land-use change on alpine vegetation. J Biogeogr 30: 401-417.

23.

Dobzhansky T. 1950. Evolution in the tropics. Am Sci 38: 209-221.

24.

Evans KL, Greenwood JJD, Gaston KJ. 2005. Dissecting the species-energy relationship. Proc R Soc B 272: 2155-2163.

25.

Field R, O’Brien EM, Whittaker RJ. 2005. Global models for predicting woody plant richness from climate: development and evaluation. Ecology 86: 2263-2277.

26.

Fonty E, Sarthou C, Larpin D, Ponge JF. 2009. A 10-year decrease in plant species richness on a neotropical inselberg: detrimental effects of global warming? Glob Change Biol 15: 2360-2374.

27.

Francis AP, Currie DJ. 2003. A globally-consistent richnessclimate relationship for angiosperms. Am Nat 161: 523-536.

28.

Gaston KJ. 2000. Global patterns in biodiversity. Nature 405: 220-227.

29.

Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA. 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dynam 16: 147-168.

30.

Grime JP. 1974. Vegetation classification by reference to strategies. Nature 250: 26–31.

31.

Guisan A, Theurillat JP. 2000. Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: a modeling perspective. Integr Asses 1: 307-320.

32.

Hansen AJ, Dale V. 2001. Biodiversity in US forests under global climate change. Ecosystems 4: 161-163.

33.

Hansen AJ, Neilson RP, Dale VH, Flather CH, Iverson LR, Currie DJ, Shafer S, Cook R, Bartlein PJ. 2001. Global change in forests responses of species, communities, and biomes. BioScience 51: 765-779.

34.

Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J, Sato M. 1999. GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J Geophys Res 104: 30997-31022

35.

Hawkins BA, Albuquerque FS, Araújo MB, Beck J, Bini LM, Cabrero-Sañudo FJ, Castro-Parga I, Diniz-Filho JAF, Ferrer-Castán D, Field R, Gómez JF, Hortal J, Kerr JT, Kitching IJ, León-Cortés JL, Lobo JM, Montoya D, Moreno JC, Olalla-Tárraga MÁ, Pausas JG, Qian H, Rahbek C, Rodríguez MÁ, Sanders NJ, Williams P. 2007. A global evaluation of metabolic theory as an explanation for terrestrial species richness gradients. Ecology 88: 1877-1888.

36.

Hawkins BA, Field R, Cornell HV, Currie DJ, Guegan JF, Kaufman DM, Kerr JT, Mittelbach GG, Oberdorff T, O’Brien EM, Porter EE, Turner JRG. 2003. Energy, water, and broad-scale geographic patterns of species richness. Ecology 84: 3105-3117.

37.

Hawkins BA, Pausas JG. 2004. Does plant richness influence animal richness? The mammals of Catalonia (NE Spain). Diver Distrib 10: 247-252.

38.

Henry M, Cosson JF, Pons JM. 2010. Modelling multi-scale spatial variation in species richness from abundance data in a complex neotropical bat assemblage. Ecol Model 221: 2018-2027.

39.

Hubbell SP. 2005. Neutral theory in community ecology and the hypothesis of functional equivalence. Funct Ecol 19: 166-172.

40.

Hubbell SP. 2006. Neutral theory in ecology and the evolution of ecological equivalence. Ecology 87: 1397-1398.

41.

Hughes L. 2000. Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends Ecol Evol 15: 56-61.

42.

Huntley B, Collingham YC, Willis SG, Green RE. 2008. Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds. PLoS One 3: e1439.

43.

Huston MA. 2003. Heat and biodiversity. Science 299: 512-513.

44.

Ibáñez I, Clark JS, Dietze MC, Feeley K, Hersh M, LaDeau S, McBride A, Welch NE, Wolosin MS. 2006. Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve. Ecology 87: 1896-1906.

45.

Ihm BS, Lee JS, Kim JW, Kim JH. 2007. Relationship between global warming and species richness of vascular plants. J Plant Biol 50: 321-324.

46.

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A, eds). IPCC, Geneva.

47.

Jetz W, Rahbek C. 2002. Geographic range size and determinants of avian species richness. Science 297: 1548-1551.

48.

Kim HR, You YH. 2010. Effects of elevated CO2 concentration and increased temperature on leaf related-physiological responses of Phytolacca insularis (native species) and Phytolacca americana (invasive species). J Ecol Field Biol 33: 195-204.

49.

Kim J-H. 1998. Global warming and state of greenhouse gases emission in Korea. J Natl Acad Sci ROK 37: 181-207.

50.

Kim J-H. 2012. Global Warming. Seoul National University Press, Seoul.

51.

Kreft H, Jetz W. 2007. Global patterns and determinants of vascular plant diversity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 5925-5930.

52.

Leemans R, Cramer WP. 1991. The IIASA Database for Mean Monthly Values of Temperature, Precipitation and Cloudiness of a Global Terrestrial Grid. RR-91-018. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Luxembourg.

53.

Lemoine N, Böhning-Gaese K. 2003. Potential impact of global climate change on species richness of long-distance migrants. Conserv Biol 17: 577-586.

54.

Lemoine N, Schaefer HC, Böhning-Gaese K. 2007. Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 16: 55-64.

55.

Lennon JJ, Greenwood JJD, Turner JRG. 2000. Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain: a test of the species-energy hypothesis. J Anim Ecol 69: 581-598.

56.

Leyequien E, Verrelst J, Slot M, Schaepman-Strub G, Heitkönig IMA, Skidmore A. 2007. Capturing the fugitive: applying remote sensing to terrestrial animal distribution and diversity. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinform 9: 1-20.

57.

Malanson GP. 1993. Comment on modelling ecological response to climate change. Clim Chang 23: 95-109.

58.

Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Rutherford MC, Powrie LW. 2002. Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecol Biogeogr 11: 445-451.

59.

Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Thuiller W, Booth A. 2003. Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region. Biol Conserv 112: 87-97.

60.

Morin PJ. 2000. Biodiversity’s ups and downs. Nature 406: 463-464.

61.

Mutke J, Barthlott W. 2005. Patterns of vascular plant diversity at continental to global scales. Biol Skrif 55: 521-531.

62.

O’Brien EM. 1998. Water-energy dynamics, climate, and prediction of woody plant species richness: an interim general model. J Biogeogr 25: 379-398.

63.

O’Brien EM, Field R, Whittaker RJ. 2000. Climatic gradients in woody plant (tree and shrub) diversity: water-energy dynamics, residual variation, and topography. Oikos 89: 588-600.

64.

Olofsson J, Hickler T, Sykes MT, Arakler T, Baletto E, Berry PM, Bonelli S, Cabeza M, Dubuis A, Guisan A, Kuhn I, Kujala H, Piper J, Rounsevell M, Settele J, Thuiller W. 2008. Climate change impacts on European biodiversity: observations and future projections. Minimisation of an Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity (MACIS). http://www.macis-project.net. Accessed 3 May 2012.

65.

Palmer MW. 1994. Variation in species richness: towards a unification of hypotheses. Folia Geobot Phytotax 29: 511-530.

66.

Peñuelas J, Prieto P, Beier C, Cesaraccio C, De Angelis P, de Dato G, Emmett BA, Estiarte M, Garadnai J, Gorissen A, Láng EK, Kröel-Dulay G, Llorens L, Pellizzaro G, Riis-Nielsen T, Schmidt IK, Sirca C, Sowerby A, Spano D, Tietema A. 2007. Response of plant species richness and primary productivity in shrublands along a northsouth gradient in Europe to seven years of experimental warming and drought: reductions in primary productivity in the heat and drought year of 2003. Glob Chang Biol 13: 2563-2581.

67.

Pianka ER. 1966. Latitudinal gradients in species diversity: a review of concepts. Am Nat 100: 33-46.

68.

Pimm SL, Gittleman JL. 1992. Biological diversity: Where is it? Science 255: 940.

69.

Pimm SL, Russell GJ, Gittleman JL, Brooks TM. 1995. The future of biodiversity. Science 269: 347-350.

70.

Ricklefs RE. 1987. Community diversity: relative roles of local and regional processes. Science 235: 167-171.

71.

Rocchini D, Balkenhol N, Carter GA, Foody GM, Gillespie TW, He KS, Kark S, Levin N, Lucas K, Luoto M, Nagendra H, Oldeland J, Ricotta C, Southworth J, Neteler M. 2010. Remotely sensed spectral heterogeneity as a proxy of species diversity: recent advances and open challenges. Ecol Inform 5: 318-329.

72.

Roeckner E, Oberhuber JM, Bacher A, Christoph M, Kirchner I. 1996. ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Clim Dyn 12: 737-754.

73.

Rohde K. 1992. Latitudinal gradients in species diversity: the search for the primary cause. Oikos 65: 514-527.

74.

Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.

75.

Rutherford S, D’Hondt S, Prell W. 1999. Environmental controls on the geographic distribution of zooplankton diversity. Nature 400: 749-753.

76.

Sala OE, Chapin FS III, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R, Huber-Sanwald E, Huenneke LF, Jackson RB, Kinzig A, Leemans R, Lodge DM, Mooney HA, Oesterheld M, Poff NL, Sykes MT, Walker BH, Walker M, Wall DH. 2000. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287: 1770-1774.

77.

Sætersdal M, Birks HJB, Peglar SM. 1998. Predicting changes in Fennoscandian vascular-plant species richness as a result of future climatic change. J Biogeogr 25: 111-122.

78.

Schlesinger ME, Zhao ZC. 1989. Seasonal climate changes induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric GCM-mixed layer ocean model. J Clim 2: 459-495.

79.

Schneider SH. 2001. What is ‘dangerous’ climate change? Nature 411: 17-19.

80.

Shanahan M, So S, Compton SG, Corlett R. 2001. Fig-eating by vertebrate frugivores: a global review. Biol Rev 76: 529-572.

81.

Shmida A, Wilson MV. 1985. Biological determinants of species diversity. J Biogeogr 12: 1-20.

82.

Shin H, Kim DS, Kim MC, Kim CH, Ku YB, No TH, Bang IC, Lee SJ, Lee EJ, Han SH, Hyun JO. 2009. Conservation Biology in Korea. Worldscience, Seoul.

83.

Sinervo B, Méndez-de-la-Cruz F, Miles DB, Heulin B, Bastiaans E, Villagrán-Santa Cruz M, Lara-Resendiz R, Martínez-Méndez N, Calderón-Espinosa ML, Meza-Lázaro RN, Gadsden H, Avila LJ, Morando M, De la Riva IJ, Victoriano Sepulveda P, Rocha CF, Ibargüengoytía N, Aguilar Puntriano C, Massot M, Lepetz V, Oksanen TA, Chapple DG, Bauer AM, Branch WR, Clobert J, Sites JW Jr. 2010. Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science 328: 894-899.

84.

Stevens GC. 1989. The latitudinal gradient in geographical range: How so many species coexist in the tropics. Am Nat 133: 240-256.

85.

The GFDL Global Atmospheric Model Development Team. 2004. The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2/LM2: evaluation with prescribed SST simulations. J Clim 17: 4641-4673.

86.

Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, De Siquiera MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, Van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips O, Williams SE. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.

87.

Thuiller W. 2007. Biodiversity: climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448: 550-552.

88.

Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC. 2005. Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102: 8245-8250.

89.

Turner JRG, Lennon JJ, Lawrenson JA. 1988. British bird species distributions and the energy theory. Nature 335: 539-541.

90.

Ulrich W, Fiera C. 2009. Environmental correlates of species richness of European springtails (Hexapoda: Collembola). Acta Oecol 35: 45-52.

91.

van der Meer J. 2006. Metabolic theories in ecology. Trends Ecol Evol 21: 136-140.

92.

Venevsky S, Veneskaia I. 2003. Large-scale energetic and landscape factors of vegetation diveristy. Ecol Lett 6: 1004-1016.

93.

Vitousek PM. 1994. Beyond global warming: ecology and global change. Ecology 75: 1861-1876.

94.

Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-395.

95.

Wang Z, Brown JH, Tang Z, Fang J. 2009. Temperature dependence, spatial scale, and tree species diversity in eastern Asia and North America. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106: 13388-13392.

96.

Warren MS, Hill JK, Thomas JA, Asher J, Fox R, Huntley B, Roy DB, Telfer MG, Jeffcoate S, Harding P, Jeffcoate G, Willis SG, Greatorex-Davies JN, Moss D, Thomas CD. 2001. Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414: 65-69.

97.

Whittaker KJ, Willis KJ, Field R. 2001. Scale and species richness: towards a general, hierarchical theory of species diversity. J Biogeogr 28: 453-470.

98.

Whittaker RJ, Nogués-Bravo D, Araújo MB. 2007. Geographic gradients of species richness: a test of the water-energy conjecture of Hawkins et al. (2003) using European data for five taxa. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 16: 76-89.

99.

Willig MR, Lyons SK. 1998. An analytical model of latitudinal gradients of species richness with an empirical test for marsupials and bats in the New World. Oikos 81: 93-98.

100.

Wilson CA, Mitchell JFB. 1987. A doubled CO2 climate sensitivity experiment with a global climate model including a simple ocean. J Geophys Res 92: 13315-13343.

101.

Woodward FI, Kelly CK. 2008. Responses of global plant diversity capacity to changes in carbon dioxide concentration and climate. Ecol Lett 11: 1229-1237.

102.

Worm B, Sandow M, Oschlies A, Lotze HK, Myers RA. 2005. Global patterns of predator diversity in the open oceans. Science 309: 1365-1369.

Journal of Ecology and Environment