This study deals with a Bayesian approach in interpreting eyewitness statement data. The Bayesian approach has the advantage of being able to elucidate real world investigation and trial. The main purpose of this study is to summarize a series of research trials to prove these advantages. Wells & Lindsay(1980) are first research to take this approach. They newly invented the information gain model and this Bayesian formula proves that identification failure, such as false identification or inability to identify lineup participants also has diagnosticity which reduces suspect's probability of being a culprit. Wells & Turtle(1986) used the same information gain model context and analysis methodology, and suggest using the single-suspect model instead because the likelihood of false identification errors inherent in the all suspect model is higher when compared to the single-suspect model. Wells & Olson(2002) found that among the major system variables dealt with in eyewitness psychology, the contrasting effect of sequential lineup vs. simultaneous lineup and the effect of the lineup participant selection method were explained in the information gain model. Clark & Wells(2008) attempted to analyze the effect of identification response from two or more witnesses who witnessed an one culprit in the lineup based on diagnosticity indicator. My research integrate multiple evidences of guilty or not guilty to refer to implications of this study, and then examines the functional relationship that yields the final post-guilt probabilities. Wells, Yang, & Smalarz(2015) newly devised Base-Rate Effect-Equilvalency(BREE) curves as emphasizing that prior probability(base rate) is a very important system variable as it has been confirmed based on information gain model through Bayesian approach. In addition, it suggested that a new standard of “reasonable suspicion” is required as a legal premise for the lineup structure in order to prevent misjudgement due to system variables such as lineups.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics of sex offenders according to victims' age. 319 sex offenders who were incarcerated in the correctional institution were classified as the sex offenders against child, Juvenile, and adult victims and examined by demographic factors, the number of crimes and crime related factors, and personal psychological characteristics. The results showed that the sex offenders against adult victims were significantly higher in the number of crimes and incarcerated, the total number of convictions, and the percentage of stranger victims and the sex offenders against child victims were the highest percentage in aged, married partners, and related victims and the sex offenders against juvenile victims were significantly higher percentage in the accomplice. In the personal psychological characteristics, there was a high level of PCL-R total score and factor 2 (social deviation) in the sex offenders of adult victims and juvenile victims and the sex offenders of adult victims showed the highest in the level of sexual fantasy and coping using sex, and the sex offenders against juvenile victims was significantly higher in self-esteem. Finally, the limitations of this study and the issues to be considered in the prevention of recidivism and the operation of the psychotherapy program were discussed.
The present study examined whether and how lay people’s verdict would vary as a function of the presence or absence of additional evidence to corroborate a sole evidence. Also, the perceived posterior probabilities of the sole evidence were compared with the Bayesian posterior probabilities. Finally, path models to identify the relationships among legal judgement, probative value of the sole evidence, posterior probability, and recognition of circularity of inference, were tested. In the results, highest rate of guilty verdict was observed in the sole confession evidence condition. The participants being aware of the logical circularity were more likely to make an acquittal decision than those without the awareness, in all experimental conditions. In the sole evidence conditions, the participants overestimated the perceived posterior probabilities of the sole evidence. According to the results of the path model in the sole confession evidence condition, it appeared that the awareness of circular logic had a direct effect on the verdict and the perceived posterior probability of the sole evidence had an indirect effect through the perceived probative value of the evidence on the verdict. We discussed about the risks embedded in trial with sole evidence and proposed a counterplan.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the characteristics of the offender and the victim, location of trauma, and the methods of crime depending on the type of the weapon used for the homicide. Among various types of weapon used in homicide, the present study compared homicides by sharp force, which is the most frequently used homicide weapon in South Korea, with homicides by ligature/manual strangulation. Based on a total of 302 homicide cases occurred from 1998 to 2008, we compared homicides by sharp force with homicides by ligature/manual strangulation by using Chi-square analyses and T-test, and additionally logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting weapon type. As a result, the offender who used sharp force had a bigger number of criminal records than offenders who committed homicide by ligature/manual strangulation, especially the criminal record of violence. Compared to victims of homicide by sharp force, victims of ligature/manual strangulation were significantly younger, and were more likely to be female and single. Most of the victims by sharp force sustained injury on the chest, whereas victims by ligature/manual strangulation were more likely to sustain injury on the head and face. In terms of methods of crime, offenders of homicides by ligature/manual strangulation were more likely to bind, gag, and rape the victim, steal from the victim, and stage the scene after the offense than those of homicides by sharp force. Finally, the limitations of the current study were discussed and the suggestions for future studies were made.
A significant body of research have been published to support the predictive validity of psychopathy measures. But most PCL studies have not focused on the raters scoring these psychopathy measures. This study coded how often and what information was provided regarding raters who scored the psychopathy measures in 61 published PCL studies. Our findings are noteworthy for demonstrating that PCL studies have been less likely provide information about the raters using psychopathy measures to readers. Specifically, most of PCL studies did not provide any information about who scored the PCL, the rater’s level of training or experiences regarding risk assessment. Future study implication includes exploring the effect of rater’s training, experiences, and characteristics on variability on psychopathy measures enhance risk assessment practice in clinical and forensic settings.