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E-ISSN : 2288-2766
Wind Attribute Time Series Modeling & Forecasting in IRAN
Sadigh Raissi (Allameh Tabatabaei University)
Meysam Rafei (Allameh Tabatabaei University)
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Abstract
wind speed forecast is a crucial and sophisticated task in a wind farm for planning turbines and corresponds to an estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines in the near future. By production is often meant available power for wind farm considered (with units KW or MW depending on both the wind speed and direction. Such forecasts can also be expressed in terms of energy, by integrating power production over each time interval. In this study, we technically focused on mathematical modeling of wind speed and direction forecast based on locally data set gathered from Aghdasiyeh station in Tehran. The methodology is set on using most common techniques derived from literature review. Hence we applied the most sophisticated forecasting methods to embed seasonality, trend, and irregular pattern for wind speed as an angular variables. Through this research, we carried out the most common techniques such as the Box and Jenkins family, VARMA, the component method, the Weibull function and the Fourier series. Finally, the best fit for each forecasting method validated statistically based on white noise properties and the final comparisons using residual standard errors and mean absolute deviation from real data.
- keywords
- Renewable Energy, Forecasting, Wind Speed and Direction Predicting, Weibull Distribution, Box and Jenkins, Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Fourier Series
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