바로가기메뉴

본문 바로가기 주메뉴 바로가기

ACOMS+ 및 학술지 리포지터리 설명회

  • 한국과학기술정보연구원(KISTI) 서울분원 대회의실(별관 3층)
  • 2024년 07월 03일(수) 13:30
 

logo

Is Real Appreciation or More Government Debt Contractionary? The Case of the Philippines

Is Real Appreciation or More Government Debt Contractionary? The Case of the Philippines

동아시아경상학회지 / East Asian Journal of Business Economics, (E)2288-2766
2016, v.4 no.4, pp.1-7
https://doi.org/10.20498/eajbe.2016.4.4.1
Yu Hsing (Southeastern Louisiana University)
Yun-Chen Morgan (Southeastern Louisiana University)
  • 다운로드 수
  • 조회수

Abstract

This paper finds that aggregate output in the Philippines has a positive relationship with real appreciation during 2006.Q4 - 2016.Q1, the stock price and the lagged real oil price and a negative relationship with real appreciation during 1998.Q1 - 2006.Q3, government debt as a percent of GDP and the real interest rate. Therefore, real appreciation may be contractionary or expansionary, and more government debt as a percent of GDP dampens economic growth.

keywords
exchange rates, government debt, oil prices, stock prices, interest rates

참고문헌

1.

Aisen, A., & Hauner, D. (2013). Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Fresh Perspective. Applied Economics, 45, 2501-2510.

2.

An, L., Kim, G., & Ren, X. (2014). Is Devaluation Expansionary or Contractionary: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions. Journal of Asian Economics, 34, 27-41.

3.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1998). Are Devaluations Contractionary in LDCs?. Journal of Economic Development, 23, 131-144.

4.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chomsisengphet, S., & Kandil, M. (2002). Are Devaluations Contractionary in Asia?. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 25, 69-82.

5.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Miteza, I. (2003). Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A Survey Article. Economic Issues, 8, 1-28.

6.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Miteza, I. (2006). Are Devaluations Contractionary? Evidence from Panel Cointegration. Economic Issues, 11(1), 49-64.

7.

Barro, R. J. (1974). Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?. Journal of Political Economy, 82, 1095-1117.

8.

Barro, R. J. (1989). The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3, 37-54.

9.

Cebula, R. J. (1997). An empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long Term Interest Rates, 1973-1995. Southern Economic Journal, 63, 1094-1099.

10.

Cebula, R. J. (2014a). Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer-Term Real Interest Rate in the US: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013. Applied Economics Quarterly, 60, 23-40.

11.

Cebula, R. J. (2014b). An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of US Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-Term Treasury Issues. 1972–2012. Applied Economics, 46, 3483-3493.

12.

Cebula, R. J., & Cuellar, P. (2010). Recent Evidence on the Impact of Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Moody’s Baa-Rated Corporate Bonds. Journal of Economics and Finance, 34, 301-307.

13.

Cebula, R. J., Angjellari-Dajci, F., & Foley, M. (2014). An Exploratory Empirical Inquiry into the Impact of Federal Budget Deficits on the Ex Post Real Interest Rate Yield on Ten Year Treasury Notes over the Last Half Century. Journal of Economics and Finance, 38, 712-720.

14.

Darrat, A. F. (1989). Fiscal Deficits and Long-Term Interest Rates: Further Evidence from Annual Data. Southern Economic Journal, 56, 363-373.

15.

Darrat, A. F. (1990). Structural Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: Some Causality and Cointegration Tests. Southern Economic Journal, 56, 752-759.

16.

Edwards, S. (1986). Are Devaluations Contractionary?. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 68, 501-508.

17.

Égert, B. (2012). Public Debt, Economic Growth and Nonlinear Effects: Myth or Reality?. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 993, OECD Publishing.

18.

Feldstein, M. (1982). Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand. Journal of Monetary Economics, 9, 1-20.

19.

Findlay, D. W. (1990). Budget Deficits, Expected Inflation and Short-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence for the US. International Economic Journal, 4, 41-53.

20.

Gupta, K. L. (1989). Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the US. Public Choice, 60, 87-92.

21.

Gylfason, T., & Schmid, M. (1983). Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?. Canadian Journal of Economics, 16, 641-654.

22.

Gylfason, T., & Risager, O. (1984). Does Devaluation Improve the Current Account?. European Economic Review, 25, 37-64.

23.

Hamilton, J. D. (1996). This is What Happened to the Oil Price–Macroeconomy Relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 215–220.

24.

Hoelscher, G. (1986). New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 18, 1-17.

25.

International Monetary Fund (2016). Philippines: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Philippines. Country Report No. 16/309, September 26.

26.

International Monetary Fund (2014). Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2014. Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund

27.

Kamin, S. B., & Klau, M. (1998). Some Multi-Country Evidence on the Effects of Real Exchange Rates on Output. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper 611.

28.

Kilian, L. (2008a). The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks. Journal of Economic Literature, 46, 871–909.

29.

Kilian, L. (2008b). Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5994.

30.

Kim, Y., & Ying, Y. H. (2007). An Empirical Assessment of Currency Devaluation in East Asian Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26, 265-283.

31.

Kim, G., An, L., & Kim, Y. (2015). Exchange Rate, Capital Flow and Output: Developed versus Developing Economies. Atlantic Economic Journal, 43, 195-207.

32.

Kumar, M., & Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth. IMF working papers, 174,1-47.

33.

Lau, E., Mansor, S. A., & Puah, C. H. (2010). Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-Affected Countries. Economic Issues, 15(Part 1), 29-53.

34.

McMillin, W. D. (1986). Federal Deficits and Short-Term Interest Rates. Journal of Macroeconomics, 8, 403-422.

35.

Mohammadi, H., & Moshrefi, G. (2012). Fiscal Policy and the Current Account: New Evidence from Four East Asian Countries. Applied Economics Letters, 19, 167-173.

36.

Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 59, 347-370.

37.

Nunnenkamp, P., & Schweickert, R. (1990). Adjustment Policies and Economic Growth in Developing Countries—Is Devaluation Contractionary?. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 126, 474-493.

38.

Ostrosky, A. L. (1990). Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: Comment. Southern Economic Journal, 56, 802-803.

39.

Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100, 573-578.

40.

Swamy, V. (2015). Government Debt and Economic Growth: Estimating the Debt Thresholds and Debt Intolerance. Atlantic Economic Journal, 1-30.

동아시아경상학회지