Factors predicting recidivism of female violent juvenile probationers: Study for developing FVJP-RRAR(Female Violent Juvenile Probationers-Rapid Risk Assessment of Recidivism)
Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to analyze factors predicting recidivism of female violent juvenile probationers for the duration of probation term, and to develop a actuarial assessment tool designed to be employed in the practice of probation. The subjects consisted of 69 violent juvenile probationers who had reoffended during their terms of probation and matched sample of 61 non-recidivists. The study found significant deferences between the recidivists group and the non-recidivists group in 9 variables. Among these variables, logistic regression showed that experience of school dropout, education, violent criminal history and parents type best predicted the recidivism for the duration of probation. FVJP-RRAR demonstrated that AUC value amounted to .772, which is referred to high predictive accuracy. These results of the study suggest that FVJP-RRAR could be a useful and potential tool for realizing ‘gender awareness’ in managing juvenile probationers commensurately with their risk, and treating violent juveniles on their need basis. It is expected that the predictive accuracy and the validity would be enhanced by follow-up studies on validation, and subsequent studies considering dynamic factors and protective factors.
- keywords
- 재범위험성, 계리적 평가도구, 성인지적, 폭력사범, 소년보호관찰, 여자 청소년, risk of recidivism, actuarial assessment tool, gender awareness, violent juvenile, juvenile probationers, female juvenile
Reference
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