ISSN : 1229-0696
It has long been known that decision makers tend to show the confirmation bias and the hindsight bias. These biases are detrimental since they deteriorate the effectiveness of decision making. This study investigated the existence of these two biases and whether the hindsight bias could be reduced by CFT prime through the mediating role of the confirmation bias. Two experiments examined the relationship among these variables in a going concern setting. In experiment 1, Certified Public Accountants showed the traditional confirmation bias and hindsight bias in a simultaneous information seeking and upward CFT scenario. The activation of a counterfactual mind-set was an effective debiasing mechanism in reducing the hindsight bias. And the confirmation bias has been shown to mediate the effect of CFT prime on the hindsight bias: CFT group showed less confirmation bias and, in turn, less hindsight bias. However, since has not been reduced to zero, only partial mediation has been shown. Furthermore, Certified Public Accountants who received outcome information tended to rate outcome-consistent items of information as more important. In experiment 2, students have implemented the above task in a sequential information seeking and downward CFT scenario. Here the similar results were obtained as in experiment 1.
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