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Korean Journal of Psychology: General

ISSN : 1229-067X

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Vol.34 No.4

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Assessment of Actuarial Tools for the Prediction of Recidivism among Incarcerated Juvenile Offenders

Korean Journal of Psychology: General / Korean Journal of Psychology: General, (P)1229-067X; (E)2734-1127
2015, v.34 no.4, pp.843-862
https://doi.org/10.22257/kjp.2015.12.34.4.843



& (2015). Assessment of Actuarial Tools for the Prediction of Recidivism among Incarcerated Juvenile Offenders. Korean Journal of Psychology: General, 34(4), 843-862, https://doi.org/10.22257/kjp.2015.12.34.4.843

Abstract

There exists a high degree of interest in actuarial tools that may help predict the recidivism of juvenile offenders. Yet, it has rarely been a focus of debate among scholars whether to use weights and what kinds of weights should be employed when developing such a tool. The current study fills this research gap. Specifically, the present study examined and compared the predictive accuracy of five different actuarial tools created by different methods of calculating weights. The results revealed that weights calculated by multivariate logistic regression and the Nuffield method proved to be of the highest predictive efficacy. Based on the results, we offer policy and research implications for both practitioners and future researchers. In particular, we underscore the need to incorporate variables pertaining to the routine activities of the offender after release as well as qualitative variables that are not easily quantified if a researcher wishes to develop an actuarial tool with a high predictive efficacy.

keywords
재범 위험성, 계리적 평가도구, 소년원, 부트스트랩 기법, ROC 분석, recidivism risk, actuarial tool, juvenile detention center, bootstrapping, ROC analysis

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