Hindsight bias and causal reasoning.

Two studies were conducted to examine the relationship between hindsight bias and causal reasoning. It was hypothesized that the tendency toward seeking confirming causes disproportionately in explaining a given event would be responsible for the occurrence of hindsight bias. Study 1 found that when participants were explicitly manipulated to consider disconfirming causes, they were less likely to exhibit hindsight bias than otherwise. Study 2 examined the relationship between attributional complexity and hindsight bias. Those with high attributional complexity were hypothesized to be more likely than those with low attributional complexity to generate confirming causes in attribution, hence a greater degree of hindsight bias. This hypothesis was also confirmed. Implications and future research were discussed.

keywords: 사후 과잉 확신 편향, 인과 추론, 확증적, Hindsight bias, causal inference, confirming causes, Hindsight bias, causal inference, confirming causes

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Article Contents

Vol.23 No.1

Hindsight bias and causal reasoning.

Abstract

Reference

Korean Journal of Psychology: General