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  • ENGLISH
  • P-ISSN1229-067X
  • E-ISSN2734-1127
  • KCI

ISSN : 1229-067X

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논문 투고

Vol.23 No.1

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사후 과잉 확신 편향과 인과 추론

Hindsight bias and causal reasoning.

한국심리학회지: 일반 / Korean Journal of Psychology: General, (P)1229-067X; (E)2734-1127
2004, v.23 no.1, pp.137-152
최인철 (서울대학교)
최인철. (2004). 사후 과잉 확신 편향과 인과 추론. 한국심리학회지: 일반, 23(1), 137-152.

초록

사후 과잉 확신 편향(어떤 일의 결과를 알고 나면 처음부터 그 일을 예상하고 있었다고 믿는 경향성)과 인과 추론의 관계를 규명하기 위하여 두 개의 연구가 수행되었다. 연구 1에서는 어떤 사건의 원인을 설명할 때 그 사건과 일치하지 않는 정보(불확증적 정보)를 고려하지 않는 것이 사후 과잉 확신 편향을 일으킨다는 가설을 규명하기 위하여 수행되었다. 피험자들에게 어떤 사건에 대한 불확증적 정보를 고려하도록 명시적으로 유도한 조건에서 그렇지 않은 조건에 비하여 사후 과잉 확신 편향이 유의미하게 줄어든 것으로 나타나 그 가설이 지지되었다. 연구2에서는 습관적으로 복잡한 인과적 사고를 하는 사람이 단순한 인과적 사고를 하는 사람에 비하여 사후 과잉 확신을 강하게 보일 것이라는 가설을 검증하였다. 이 가설을 검증하기 위하여 연구 2에서는 피험자들의 귀인 복잡성(Attributional complexity)을 측정하였고 전형적인 사후 과잉 확신 과제를 실시하였다. 연구 결과 예상한대로 귀인 복잡성이 높은 사람들일수록 사후 과잉 확신 편향을 강하게 보였다. 연구 결과의 시사점과 가능한 후속 연구들에 대한 논의가 제시되었다.

keywords
사후 과잉 확신 편향, 인과 추론, 확증적, Hindsight bias, causal inference, confirming causes, Hindsight bias, causal inference, confirming causes

Abstract

Two studies were conducted to examine the relationship between hindsight bias and causal reasoning. It was hypothesized that the tendency toward seeking confirming causes disproportionately in explaining a given event would be responsible for the occurrence of hindsight bias. Study 1 found that when participants were explicitly manipulated to consider disconfirming causes, they were less likely to exhibit hindsight bias than otherwise. Study 2 examined the relationship between attributional complexity and hindsight bias. Those with high attributional complexity were hypothesized to be more likely than those with low attributional complexity to generate confirming causes in attribution, hence a greater degree of hindsight bias. This hypothesis was also confirmed. Implications and future research were discussed.

keywords
사후 과잉 확신 편향, 인과 추론, 확증적, Hindsight bias, causal inference, confirming causes, Hindsight bias, causal inference, confirming causes

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한국심리학회지: 일반

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