ISSN : 1229-067X
The purpose of the present study is to analyze factors predicting recidivism of larcenous juvenile probationers for the duration of probation term, and to develop a actuarial assessment tool designed to be employed in the practice of probation. The subjects consisted of 817 larcenous juvenile probationers who had reoffended during their terms of probation and matched sample of 675 non-recidivists. The study found significant deferences between the recidivists group and the non-recidivists group in 19 variables. Among those variables, logistic regression showed that denying accountability, age at the time of commencing probation, theft history, experience of school dropout and parents type best predicted the recidivism for the duration of probation. LJP-RRAR demonstrated that AUC value amounted to .711, which is referred to high predictive accuracy. These results of the study suggest that LJP-RRAR could be a useful and potential tool in managing juvenile probationers commensurately with their risk, and treating violent juveniles on their need basis. It is expected that the predictive accuracy and the validity would be enhanced by follow-up studies on validation, and subsequent studies considering dynamic factors and protective factors.
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