Factors predicting recidivism of violent juvenile probationers: Study for developing LJP-RRAR(Larcenous Juvenile Probationers-Rapid Risk Assessment of Recidivism)

노일석

Korean Journal of Psychology: General

KOREAN
P-ISSN1229-067X
E-ISSN2734-1127
KCI

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Vol.28 No.2

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Factors predicting recidivism of violent juvenile probationers: Study for developing LJP-RRAR(Larcenous Juvenile Probationers-Rapid Risk Assessment of Recidivism)

Korean Journal of Psychology: General / Korean Journal of Psychology: General, (P)1229-067X; (E)2734-1127

2009, v.28 no.2, pp.449-470

(2009). Factors predicting recidivism of violent juvenile probationers: Study for developing LJP-RRAR(Larcenous Juvenile Probationers-Rapid Risk Assessment of Recidivism). Korean Journal of Psychology: General, 28(2), 449-470.

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Abstract

The purpose of the present study is to analyze factors predicting recidivism of larcenous juvenile probationers for the duration of probation term, and to develop a actuarial assessment tool designed to be employed in the practice of probation. The subjects consisted of 817 larcenous juvenile probationers who had reoffended during their terms of probation and matched sample of 675 non-recidivists. The study found significant deferences between the recidivists group and the non-recidivists group in 19 variables. Among those variables, logistic regression showed that denying accountability, age at the time of commencing probation, theft history, experience of school dropout and parents type best predicted the recidivism for the duration of probation. LJP-RRAR demonstrated that AUC value amounted to .711, which is referred to high predictive accuracy. These results of the study suggest that LJP-RRAR could be a useful and potential tool in managing juvenile probationers commensurately with their risk, and treating violent juveniles on their need basis. It is expected that the predictive accuracy and the validity would be enhanced by follow-up studies on validation, and subsequent studies considering dynamic factors and protective factors.

keywords: risk of recidivism, actuarial assessment tool, risk prediction, larcenous juvenile, juvenile probationers, 재범위험성, 계리적 평가도구, 재범예측, 절도사범, 소년보호관찰

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Article Contents

Vol.28 No.2

Factors predicting recidivism of violent juvenile probationers: Study for developing LJP-RRAR(Larcenous Juvenile Probationers-Rapid Risk Assessment of Recidivism)

Abstract

Reference

Korean Journal of Psychology: General