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Korean Journal of Psychology: General

ISSN : 1229-067X

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Vol.29 No.4

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A Recidivism Follow-Up Study Based on the Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale (KSORAS)

Korean Journal of Psychology: General / Korean Journal of Psychology: General, (P)1229-067X; (E)2734-1127
2010, v.29 no.4, pp.999-1016



& (2010). A Recidivism Follow-Up Study Based on the Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale (KSORAS). Korean Journal of Psychology: General, 29(4), 999-1016.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to verify the power of predict recidivism of KSORAS(Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale) which was developed in 2008. This study conducted follow-up recidivism of 163 sex offenders from the sample of study 1 in 2008. At the end of the follow-up period, 11.9% of the offenders had been reoffend for a new sex offence. As the result of ROC analysis, the accuracy of the KSORAS with AUC .676(p<.05) is moderate. Then the optimum cut-off score for the KSORAS produced by ROC analysis was the total score 15. This cut-off score corresponded to a sensitivity of .38, and a specificity of .83. Also, as the result of survival analysis, the survival rate of the high risk offenders(total score 15 and above) was significantly lower than that of the low risk offenders(total score 14 and below). According to this positive results of this study, the KSORAS can help in decision making of criminal justice system for Korean sex offenders. It also expect that KSORAS will be alternative plan of arbitrary decision.

keywords
한국성범죄자위험성평가척도(KSORAS), 재범, 위험성 평가, ROC 분석, 생존분석, Korean Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale (KSORAS), recidivism, risk assessment, ROC Analysis, Survival Analysis

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