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The Role of Counterfactual Thinking in Media's Criminogenic Effects: Criminal Intent with the Mutability of Punishment Consequences

Korean Psychological Journal of Culture and Social Issues / Korean Psychological Journal of Culture and Social Issues, (P)1229-0661; (E)1229-0661
2012, v.18 no.3, pp.329-347



Abstract

Criminal media such as dramas and movies are growing in popularity. However, the effects of criminal media as well as its psychological mechanism are not clearly examined. Based on social learning theory (Bandura, 1978), past studies showed that arrest and punishment to the criminal in media have a suppressing effect. The present research examined the ironic possibility that media coverage of punishment could increase the audience’s criminal intention and proposed the mediating role of counterfactual thinking in the effect. We hypothesized that when punishment was depicted as accidental rather than unavoidable in media coverage, perceived high mutability and counterfactuals focusing on the accidental factors could clarify the ways to commit the crime without being caught and subsequently increase future criminal intention. In this study, 95 college students read a story of plagiarizing either no, accidental, or inevitable punishment, and later asked to report their intention to plagiarize. An ANCOVA with participants‘ own history of plagiarism as a covariate found that the intention of plagiarism in future was significantly different. The results showed that the intention of plagiarism in the accidental punishment condition was higher than that in the inevitable punishment condition. Further, the intention of plagiarism in the accidental punishment condition was the same level with non-punishment condition. The findings suggest that whether criminals are caught or not is not enough to reduce criminal intentions of audience, but how criminals are caught matters.

keywords
criminal media, intention of crime, social learning theory, mutability, counterfactual thinking, 범죄미디어, 범죄의도, 사회학습이론, 전환가능성, 사후가정사고

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