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ISSN : 1226-9654

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논문 투고

Vol.30 No.3

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P300 숨긴정보검사의 오류 긍정률

The false positive rate of P300-based concealed information test

한국심리학회지: 인지 및 생물 / The Korean Journal of Cognitive and Biological Psychology, (P)1226-9654; (E)2733-466X
2018, v.30 no.3, pp.241-259
https://doi.org/10.22172/cogbio.2018.30.3.003
엄진섭 (충북대학교)
전하정 (충남대학교)
손진훈 (충남대학교)
엄진섭, 전하정, & 손진훈. (2018). P300 숨긴정보검사의 오류 긍정률. 한국심리학회지: 인지 및 생물, 30(3), 241-259, https://doi.org/10.22172/cogbio.2018.30.3.003

초록

P300 숨긴정보검사(P300 CIT)는 무죄조건에서 목표자극을 제외한 나머지 자극들이 모두 동일한 P300을 유발할 것이라고 가정한다. 그러나 P300 이론에 따르면 자극의 동질성 가정이 충족되지 않을 수 있으며, 따라서 P300 CIT의 오류 긍정률이 증가할 수 있다. 이러한 가능성을 확인하기 위하여 일련의 연구를 수행하였다. 연구 1에서는 단일관련자극 프로토콜에서 자극의 동질성 가정이 파기되는 정도를 확인하였다. 모의범죄를 이용한 연구에서는 전체 사례의 약 30%에서 자극의 동질성 가정이 파기되었으며, 기억상실을 이용한 연구에서는 자극의 동질성 가정이 대부분 유지되었다. 연구 2에서는 중다관련자극 프로토콜에서 자극의 동질성 가정이 파기되는 정도를 확인하였다. 연구결과 전체 사례의 약 25%에서 자극의 동질성 가정이 파기되었다. 연구 3에서는 자극의 비동질성 수준(0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)과 관련자극의 개수(1, 3, 6), 시행 수(30, 48, 66), 유의수준(.10, .05)에 따른 오류 긍정률을 추정하기 위하여 몬테 카를로 연구를 수행하였다. 자극의 비동질성 수준이 0인 경우에는 관련자극의 개수와 시행 수, 유의수준에 관계없이 오류 긍정률이 적절하게 통제되었다. 그러나 자극의 비동질성 수준이 1 이상인 경우에는 모든 조건에서 오류 긍정률이 증가하였으며, 자극의 비동질성 수준이 증가할수록, 관련자극의 개수가 적을수록, 시행 수가 증가할수록 오류 긍정률이 증가하였다. 유의수준 .10에서 비동질성 수준이 2인 경우에는 오류 긍정률이 12%~25%의 범위를 보였으며, 비동질성 수준이 5인 경우에는 18%~38%의 범위를 보였다. 논의에서 자극이 비동질적인 경우에 오류 긍정률을 통제하는 방법을 제안하였다.

keywords
P300, concealed information test, guilty knowledge test, lie detection, false positive rate, P300, 숨긴정보검사, 유죄지식검사, 거짓말 탐지, 오류 긍정률

Abstract

P300 concealed information test (P300 CIT) assumes that all stimuli except the target stimuli show the same P300 amplitudes in innocent participants. However, according to the P300 theory, the assumption of the equality of stimuli can be easily violated, thus false positive rate of P300 CIT can be increased. A series of studies were conducted to confirm this possibility. In study 1, we identified how much the assumption of the equality of stimuli was violated in single-probe protocol. This assumption was invalidated in about 30% of the participants in the study using a mock crime, but it was almost met in the study using autobiographical information. In study 2, we conducted an experimental study to evaluate the assumption of equality of stimuli in multiple-probe protocol. It turned out that the assumption was not met in about 25% of participants. In study 3, a Monte Carlo study was conducted to estimate the false positive rates by the level of non-equality of stimuli (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5), the number of probes (1, 3, and 6), the number of trials (30, 48, and 66), and the significance levels (.10 and .05). When the level of non-equality of stimuli was set to 0, the false positive rates were properly controlled regardless of the number of probes, the number of trials, and the significance levels. However, the false positive rates was increased in all conditions when the level of non-equality of stimuli was 1 or higher. The false-positive rates got higher when the level of non-equality of stimuli got higher, the number of probes got smaller, and the number of trials got higher. When the level of non-equality of stimuli was 2, the false positive rates ranged from 12% to 25% at the significance level .10. While the level of non-equality of stimuli was 5, it fell within the ranged of 18% to 38%. In the discussion, we proposed methods to control false positive rates in the presence of non-equality of stimuli.

keywords
P300, concealed information test, guilty knowledge test, lie detection, false positive rate, P300, 숨긴정보검사, 유죄지식검사, 거짓말 탐지, 오류 긍정률

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