The Role of Prefactual Thinking and Anticipated Counterfactual Regret in a Losing Investment Decision

본 연구에서는 개인투자자들이 손해보고 있는 주식을 너무 오래 가지고 있는 행동 편향(처분효과)을 예상되는 후회로 설명해보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 매수한 주식가격이 떨어져 잠재적 손실이 발생한 상황에서 사람들이 주로 어떤 유형의 사전가정사고를 하고(연구 1), 이러한 가정적 사고 중 예상되는 후회가 사람들의 이후 투자결정에 어떻게 영향을 미치는지를 알아보았다(연구 2). 연구 1의 결과는 손실 상황에서 사람들은 다양한 가정적 사고를 하지만 그 중 포기후회가 제일 빈번하게 나타나는 예상되는 후회의 형태임을 보여주었다. 연구 2의 결과는 사람들이 더 크게 느끼는 후회의 종류에 따라 투자결정이 달라짐을 보여주었다. 즉 포기후회를 더 크게 느끼는 사람은 ‘팔지 않는다’는 투자결정을, 유지후회를 더 크게 느끼는 사람은 ‘팔고 나온다’는 투자결정을 더 많이 하는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 이러한 예상되는 후회의 영향은 주식투자 상황에서 영향을 미칠 수 있는 개인변수(예, 자기고양적 동기, 위험감수성향)를 통제한 후에도 여전히 나타났다. 마지막으로 본 연구 결과의 시사점이 논의되었다.

keywords: disposition effect, prefactual thinking, anticipated counterfactual thinking, anticipated counterfactual regret, 처분효과, 사전가정사고, 예상되는 사후가정사고, 예상되는 후회

Abstract

In the present study, we attempted to explain why people keep losing stocks too long (the disposition effect) with anticipated counterfactual regret. For this aim, we investigated what kinds of prefactual thinking people had when they had a losing stock facing potential loss (study 1) and whether anticipated counterfactual regret had influence on their investment decision (study 2). The results of study 1 demonstrated that people did various kinds of prefactual thinking facing a losing investment situation but that withdrawal regret was the most frequent type. The results of study 2 showed that people made decisions depending on what kind of anticipated counterfactual regret was felt more strongly. That is, those who felt the withdrawal regret more strongly decided to keep their stock, while those who felt the persistence regret more strongly decided to sell their stock. The effect of anticipated counterfactual regret was significant even after controlling related personal variables (e.g., self-enhancing bias, risk taking tendency). Finally, the implication of the results was discussed.

keywords: disposition effect, prefactual thinking, anticipated counterfactual thinking, anticipated counterfactual regret, 처분효과, 사전가정사고, 예상되는 사후가정사고, 예상되는 후회

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논문 상세

Vol.23 No.2

손실 상황의 주식투자결정에서 사전가정사고와 예상되는 후회의 역할

The Role of Prefactual Thinking and Anticipated Counterfactual Regret in a Losing Investment Decision

초록

Abstract

참고문헌

한국심리학회지: 사회 및 성격